What Comes After the Coherence Crash?
Good morning. It's December 6, 2020.
Thought of the Week:
“Instead of fucking up shit, make shit up” - Bruce Dern
New Research
This week, with the Institute for the Future, we published a study looking at how people make sense of a world challenged by societal crises, disinformation, and declining confidence in institutions. The research looked into how we cope with a "coherence crash" and apply a DIY ethos to find perspective. Events in 2020 revolutionized how millions inform themselves and organize digitally. McKinsey reported share of digital products within corporate portfolios accelerated by a shocking seven years. COVID-19 pushed the public and companies over the technology tipping point—and transformed business and cultural norms forever. If you want to know why things feel so out of sync, check out the research to sense what's happening. (Coherence Crash summary and report).
News in Perspective:
Grinch Bots are stealing Christmas stock. When PlayStation 5 consoles were released in November, traffic crashed Walmart's website. Every time other retailers released consoles, the products were gone in less than five seconds. "Grinch Bots" were behind the surge, able to discover and buy in-demand items like PlayStation 5 in milliseconds. They function like ticket scalpers buying up sneakers, toys, and electronics before people have a chance to buy items. Outwitting systems to buy and sell items is a time-honored. It's not necessarily a computer problem. It's human nature applied in a new digital context that impacts marketing, retail, and supply chain management. (source: Quartz, Undark)
Ending nightmares for good. NightWare, a wearables start-up, received clearance to market a device to interrupt PTSD-related nightmares. The prototype app tracks typical movements and heart rates of users during sleep. If sensors pick up abnormal movement or higher heart rates, it delivers vibrations to nudge — but not wake — the sleeper out of the bad dream. It's part of a more extensive technological pursuit to hack dreams. Dating back to 2017, a research team at MIT's Dream Lab has been working on other wearable devices to track and interact with dreams — including giving you new control over the content of them. (source: Wired, MIT)
How soon before we all have a digital twin? In the fashion world, Donatella Versace's style is getting virtual treatment for the first time. This week, the designer will debut her digital alter ago and avatar (complete with a gold baroque Versace suit) at an interactive shopping event. She will unlock access for users to purchase a limited-edition Versace Trigreca sneaker in an entirely with only 100 pairs available for sale. The idea of digital twins is not only for the rich and famous, or a marketing stunt. It’s part of a broader phenomenon, most prevalent in video games and messaging, to rebuild our persona for life in virtual worlds being built, what Wired founder Kelly Kelly calls Mirrorworlds. (source: Paper, AR Insider)
News sites struggle to balance how to inform versus bait us. Wonder how news companies determine what to show you? Like Netflix, Facebook, and Amazon, news producers use recommender systems to predict what we're most likely to click. They use machine learning algorithms to make customized experiences for each user. Systems ingest types of stories we click on, how far down a page we read, or how long we watch a video. How to balance between getting us to click versus informing us of trustworthy news is a challenge. MIT found, for example, fake news spreads 6x faster than real stories. According to Christopher Berry, director of product intelligence at the CBC, "There's a lot we don't know and many mysteries left to be solved. This feels like forever work, and we believe it's worth pursuing the public good." Bad movie recommendations ruin evenings. Harmful news recommendations ruin much more. (source: Partnership on AI)
Little, tiny voices becoming a very big market. Spotify now dominates the podcasting market thanks to million-plus tiny podcasts, an ecosystem most people don't know exists. Anchor, an easy-to-use podcast software acquired by Spotify, powers roughly 1.3 million out of over 1.9 million shows in their catalog. Listening time adds up fast, accumulating from small groups of dedicated fans. The podcasting market is growing by 20 million listeners each year, with forecasts suggesting a total voice market of 180 million listeners by 2023. The DIY phenomenon fueling it is another example of people moving away from "mass" institutions to new micro sources that they better relate to. (source: Spotify, The Verge)
Other Links of Note
141 optical illusions that show quirks in perception. VR can help you prepare for awkward workplace encounters. An AI that runs your work meetings. Time Magazine's first kid of the year. People are obsessed with feel-good, short-form content. Startups are rethinking crayons. QAnon is now global. A new microscope can safely look through your skull. The modern world has become too complex for us to understand.
Bell well. I will see you next week.
CP
Each week, I share research bits informing 'Perspective Agents'—a media project about how intelligent products, ideas, and revelations change how we see the world.