The Futures Gap
Thoughts on turning angst into optimism
“The enemy of good decisions is a lack of sufficient perspectives on a problem.”
- Alain de Botton
Why do we overlook the environment we live in? Or, if asked about the future, we prefer to change the subject. While common, it’s not good for us. The change-blind are now at a disadvantage.
Rather than think about the ebbs and flows of our environment, Neil Postman said we "amuse ourselves to death." By "we" he means us all.
A study published in The Psychological Review found only one percent of participants wanted to know what the future held. It didn't matter whether the outcomes were positive or negative.
A separate project from The Institute of the Future found most Americans cannot imagine what life might be like ten years from now. Fifty-three percent of participants in the study rarely thought this way. Thirty-two percent said it never crossed their mind at all.
In her new book Imaginable, Jane McGonigal cautioned against this state of mind— a normalcy bias. It’s a subconscious belief that life will go on as it always has.
Normalcy bias is widespread in business. In this context, it leads to a distorted vision, and increasingly, a failure of leadership. According to McGonigal, it accounts for roughly a quarter of CEO dismissals. She cites those fired for denying reality or refusing to recognize the need to change. Other research, including this from CBI Insights, found more executives getting axed for failures of imagination.
It's not just business leaders who tempt fate by looking the other way. We all will face effects from "unthinkables."
We will deal with climate impact and job automation. We will feel the impact of great resignations and vaccine crusades. We will travel by autonomous cars and through virtual worlds. We will even question our humanity as longevity innovations and digital twins go mainstream.
How do you plan for this future? How can you feel in control? How might you feel hopeful in seas of unknowns?
McGonigal is an optimist. She suggests thinking in "ten-year horizons" can help our well-being. We can join communities for support and encouragement to build the future together. We can improve our decisions with different points of view.
Here are a few places to start —
Subscribe to Perspective Agents. Yes, it’s a plug, but it’s a simple way to skim new modes of thought, question events, and see signals of change.
Check out The Future Today Institute's 2022 trends report. In its 15th year, it’s the most comprehensive study of society-altering change (see Amy Webb’s SXSW summary here).
Join the Urgent Optimists group. It's the Institute for the Future's first individual membership program designed to help individuals create positive transformations.
Consider these entry points for perspective-building. What resonated most reading McGonigal's book is how we trick ourselves on the relevance of future scenarios in our work and personal lives. She notes we miss opportunities to adapt through:
Distancing (not my problem; I'll be retired or done by then)
Denial (this doesn't affect me or my work)
Fatigue (I can barely get through the day let alone with what’s new)
Surrender (I don't know what to look for or where to start).
Which one(s) apply to you? Who in your circles does this personally impact? What can be done to build optimism and agency to shape your future?
Stretch your imagination to be ready when "unthinkables" happen. That doesn’t automatically translate to doom.
To see change optimistically, take time to investigate what’s lies ahead.
QUESTIONING THE NEWS
This week's catalytic news list spans virtual worlds, surveillance, spiritual pursuits, doom fashion, and scientific discovery.
World-Building
Can virtual worlds replicate the appeal of in-person events?
Decentraland just completed Metaverse Fashion Week -- a combination of high-end designers and wearables vendors flaunting non-fungible tokens (NFTs) in the blockchain-based virtual world. Etro, Tommy Hilfiger, Perry Ellis, Dolce & Gabbana, Elie Saab, Hogan, Dundas, Imitation of Christ, Nicholas Kirkwood, and Estée Lauder all staked out claims. Media outlets across fashion and tech covered the event, including UK's pre-eminent tabloid, The Sun, which "sent" a reporter. There was much missing from all the technical innovations: no celebrities, no Insta influencers, and no street style. (sources: Vogue, Sociology of Business, Coindesk)
Surveillance
Is open-source intelligence a media game or net positive for society?
New social media accounts have supplied the information-hungry public with an analysis of critical movements in Russia's invasion. Under Intel Crab's pseudonym, University of Alabama sophomore Justin Peden has become an unlikely source of information about the unfolding Ukraine-Russia war. The 20-year-old sifts through satellite images, TikTok videos, and security feeds from his dorm room, sharing findings like troop movements and aircraft models with more than 220,000 followers on Twitter. Peden said that his posts had reached 20 million people. "Everybody has their unique understanding of the world … and they all come together and play an important role in creating this collaborative OSINT environment." (sources: Rest of World, Twitter)
Spiritual Disease
Is "manifesting" a new-age coping mechanism or way to change the world?
Manifesting is hardly new – it dates back to both the New Thought movement of the 19th century and, more recently, thanks to the 2006 self-help book The Secret, which sold 30 million copies. In 2020, as lockdowns began, Google searches of "manifesting" went up 600%. On Instagram, the hashtags #manifest and #manifestation now total 15 million posts. On TikTok, views of manifestation content are surging past nine billion. Now it's a movement with influencers, events, and a growing community. (sources: The Guardian, Spell Magazine, Nylon)
Coherence Crash
What does culture look like when doom is in fashion?
Trendsetters are translating doom as a canvas for chic. "Avant-Garde Apocalypse" is a new fashion genre drawing inspiration from world events and the growing popularity of sci-fi films spanning The Matrix, Dune, and Star Wars. Gen Z's conception of apocalyptic fashion is no longer concerned with functionality. It's guided by new sensibilities, creativity, and imagination. By using these sci-fi jumping-off references, fashion enthusiasts find new ways to express their individuality through "DIY sculptural looks." (sources: Culted, Mandy Lee, NextAltas)
Scientific Discoveries
Can AI help us discover new laws of nature?
In a paper published this month in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers analyzed thousands of protein complexes and RNA structures and a model network of molecules that control how genes switch on and off. They found that evolution tends toward symmetry because the instructions for symmetry are easier to embed in the genetic code and follow. Symmetry is maybe the most fundamental application of the adage "work smarter, not harder." We found a new law of nature," said Chico Camargo from the University of Exeter in England. "This is beautiful because it changes how you see the world." (source: The New York Times)
PATTERNS OF DISRUPTION
World Changes
Private investment in AI has more than doubled since 2020. Despite big investments, AI tools failed to catch COVID. It was 70 degrees warmer than normal in Antarctica. The (Metaverse) land rush of 2022 is on. Global supply strains that started to ease are worsening again. Why U.S. population growth is collapsing. A meat-free world by 2035. What might a world without work look like? How money has changed throughout history.
Human Innovations
Substack’s ideology. How 5G may send weather forecasting back to the 70s. Meet ElliQ, the robot who wants to keep Grandma company. Faux meat, dairy startups take nearly half of the record $13B VC food tech investment. AI uncovers hidden signatures of Parkinson’s Disease. Robotized insects search collapsed buildings for survivors. A change in coding might reduce bitcoin energy consumption by 99%. CNN+ to feature interview clubs. Kids are learning history from video games now.
Social Dilemmas
The psychology of your scrolling addiction. Daredevils risk their lives for vertigo-inducing selfies. Fantasy sports apps create a gambling addiction surge. An AI beat eight world champions at bridge. Is the rate at which scientists and inventors discover new things actually slowing?
Translations of Power
Russia and Ukraine use suicide drones in conflict. Social media volunteers help Ukraine win the information war. A Twitter bot is tracking Russian oil and gas tankers in real-time. Website tracks quotes from pro-Putin conservatives. The theory behind “chaos climbers.”
“Other”
People are making personal “user manuals.” Scientists are looking at the phenomenon of three-pound goldfish. The plain text Internet is coming. Jeff Koons is sending sculptures to the moon. Tiger Woods conspiracy theories appear ahead of Masters. QAnon sparks conspiracy theories about “the slap.” 100 ways to slightly improve your life without really trying. How to play every Wordle ever made.
A FINAL NOTE
Doom has long been synonymous with futures thinking, fueled by social criticism from authors like Aldous Huxley. Here’s a clip of doomsday predictions from 1950. Some of the greatest progress in human history happened since then — apocalyptic thinking be damned.
Stay safe, will see you next week.
- CP
Perspective Agents are things that push the boundaries of thought. You can also find automated updates and new examples on Twitter. Thanks for the read.